AI Innovations: The Game-Changing Breakthroughs Shaping the Future Beyond 2024
Published on: March 10, 2024
The year 2023 may be remembered as a landmark in the history of generative AI, marked by the meteoric rise of technologies like ChatGPT. However, 2024 is shaping up to be a year of reality checks. The overhyped expectations surrounding AI are poised for recalibration as we come to terms with the technology's actual capabilities and limitations.
Evidence is mounting that generative AI and large language models are prone to delivering false information and 'hallucinations', where AI fabricates information. Efforts to remedy these issues through supervised learning, aimed at steering AI away from unreliable sources, are likely to fall short of solving the inherent challenges posed by the predictive nature of these models.
The anticipated exponential productivity gains across various sectors are likely to be reassessed. The narrative is expected to shift, with more emphasis on understanding the specific human tasks that can be augmented by AI and the training required to integrate these technologies effectively into the workforce.
2024 will also bring a clearer understanding of the limits of AI in mimicking complex human cognition. The year will see a divergence of opinions, with some viewing advanced intelligence as an imminent breakthrough, while others recognize the limitations of AI in replicating human-level thinking.
The societal implications of AI's rapid development will become more evident. The deployment of generative AI in various industries might result in mediocre automation, leading to job displacement without significant productivity improvements. In the realms of social media and online search, generative AI will likely increase screen time and associated mental health issues, raising concerns about misinformation and user manipulation.
The industry may see an increase in AI startups and a shift towards open-source models. However, this is unlikely to prevent the emergence of a duopoly, dominated by giants like Google and Microsoft/OpenAI. The reliance on these large foundation models by other companies will continue, potentially leading to widespread disappointment due to the persistence of misinformation and hallucinatory outputs in AI applications.
Calls for regulatory actions and antitrust measures will intensify, though significant progress in these areas is not expected in 2024. The slow pace of government response to the rapid advancements in AI technology will become more apparent, triggering bipartisan discussions about the need for new laws and regulations.