The Future of Technology: Rodney Brooks' Urgent Warnings
Published on: March 10, 2024
Rodney Brooks, co-founder of iRobot and inventor of the Roomba, has been closely monitoring the AI industry's trajectory. His observations, based on years of expertise, suggest a sobering future for AI technology. In his annual Predictions Scorecard, Brooks, also the former director of MIT's AI and computer labs, indicates that the AI industry might be caught in a hype cycle similar to those seen throughout the 60+ year history of AI.
Brooks points out that, despite recent successes, the AI field may face a period of stagnation, potentially leading to an 'AI winter.' This prediction comes amidst expectations of the industry reaching over $1 trillion in value by the next decade. He metaphorically advises preparing for a cold season, implying a significant downturn in the AI sector.
His methodology for predictions categorizes technological advancements based on their expected occurrence: by a specified year, no earlier than a certain year, or 'Not In My Lifetime' (NIML), meaning not before 2050. Each year, he revisits these predictions, assessing them as accurate, too pessimistic, or too optimistic.
Brooks has a record of precise predictions. For example, he foresaw in 2018 that the 'next big thing' in AI would occur between 2023 and 2027, aligning closely with the advent of advanced language models like OpenAI's ChatGPT.
However, his outlook for the immediate future of AI is more reserved. He classifies the much-discussed artificial general intelligence as a 'NIML' prediction. Brooks is even doubtful about developing AI with capabilities akin to a dog's intelligence and loyalty by 2048, highlighting the complexity of such endeavors.
Many think we are close; I believe we are far from it, Brooks comments, tempering the industry's enthusiasm. He acknowledges the potential in AI but emphasizes the need for patience and sustained effort to achieve groundbreaking developments.
Brooks' stance is a reminder to the AI community to maintain realistic goals and a long-term perspective. His insights urge industry leaders to brace for challenges ahead and to strategize accordingly for sustainable growth.